Economic Restoration scenario

Decorative imageEconomic Restoration scenario

The Economic Restoration scenario assumes the virus is contained domestically by 2021, with international borders starting to re-open from 2021, triggering renewed growth in travel, and global imports and exports.

Shocks

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Productivity

Productivity is negatively impacted due to a range of factors including social distancing and COVID-19 restrictions

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Domestic demand

Private consumption falls as unemployment rises

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International demand

Global demand falls, leading to a fall in exports

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Government spending

Fiscal support measures increase

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Population

Migration falls due to short-term border closures

 

Other shocks

Assumptions broadly aligned with 2020–21 Budget.

Results

The sectors most impacted by social distancing and border restrictions are hardest hit in the first 12 months but begin to recover once the virus is contained domestically. Industry changes are not structural and once the economy recovers trends in industry employment are relatively unchanged.