Impeded Recovery scenario

Decorative imageImpeded Recovery scenario

The Impeded Recovery scenario assumes the virus is largely suppressed domestically by 2021. However, household consumption and investment do not begin to rebound until mid-2021.

Shocks

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Productivity

Negative (relative to Economic Restoration)

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Domestic demand

Negative (relative to Economic Restoration)

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International demand

Negative (relative to Economic Restoration)

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Government spending

Neutral (as per Economic Restoration)

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Population

Neutral (as per Economic Restoration)

 

Other shocks

Business Investment (relative to Economic Restoration)

Dwelling Investment (relative to Economic Restoration)

Household consumption (relative to Economic Restoration)

Results

There is a greater shock to household demand and business investment, which triggers further macroeconomic effects including higher unemployment and lower GDP per capita.