Services set to drive five year employment growth

The National Skills Commission projects that four industries are projected to generate over three-fifths (or 64.4%) of total employment growth over the five years to November 2025. These include Health Care and Social Assistance (increasing by 249,500 jobs), followed by Accommodation and Food Services (139,900 jobs), Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (131,100 jobs) and Education and Training (118,600 jobs).

The Health Care and Social Assistance industry is projected to make the largest contribution to employment growth (projected to grow by 14.2%) to November 2025, continuing the long-term trend as the primary provider of new jobs in the Australian labour market. Health Care and Social Assistance has been relatively resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 and have the largest proportion of workers in resilient occupations.

Accommodation and Food Services industry employment is projected to recover from the impacts of the pandemic and surpass pre-COVID-19 levels (projected to increase by 16.8%), driven by the Cafes, Restaurants and Takeaway Food Services and Accommodation sectors which are projected to grow by 114,100 and 23,800 jobs respectively.

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services is also projected to increase (up by 11.0%), reflecting ongoing strength in demand for the services of qualified and highly skilled workers throughout the economy. Sectors significantly contributing to this growth include Computer System Design and Related Services, Legal and Accounting Services, and Architectural, Engineering and Technical Services.

Education and Training is also projected to increase (up by 10.8%), supported by a larger school aged population and growing demand for adult and community education.

Declines in employment are projected for Manufacturing (down by 5,900 jobs) and Information Media and Telecommunications (down by 7,500 jobs).

The declines in Manufacturing (projected to decline by 0.7%) highlight the existing long-term trend across some Manufacturing sectors, including Transport Equipment Manufacturing (down by 9.0%) and Textile, Leather, Clothing and Footwear Manufacturing (down by 15.3%). However, other sectors are projected to increase, including in the Primary Metal and Metal Product Manufacturing sector (up by 8.5%), which is supported by significant domestic infrastructure investment and the redevelopment of modern manufacturing in Australia.

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To view the full Industry Employment Outlook, visit the Labour Market Information Portal.

Each year, the National Skills Commission produces employment projections by industry, occupation and region for the following five years. The 2020 projections were delayed because of the impact of COVID-19 on the labour market. The 2020 employment projections are based on the forecasted and projected total employment growth rates published in the 2020-21 Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO), November 2020 Labour Force Survey (LFS) data for total employment, and the detailed quarterly LFS data (November 2020) for industry employment data.