Part 3 Modelling of economic recovery scenarios

3.1 The importance of scenario modelling 

  • Method used to examine the scenarios
  • Scenarios considered
  • Analysing the modelling results

3.2 Key findings from the central Economic Restoration scenario

  • The Economic Restoration scenario outlines a pathway of recovery for Australia
  • Impacts on occupational employment will flatten out over time
  • Many occupations will recover
  • Occupations that were performing well before COVID-19 are expected to grow
  • Structure of labour market unlikely to change significantly
  • Health, education and professional services will continue to dominate growth
  • The labour market will continue to shift towards higher skilled jobs

3.3 Insights from the other scenarios examined by the NSC

  • Initial impacts flatten out across all scenarios
  • More substantial structural change likely if digitisation accelerates
  • Trend towards higher skilled jobs to accelerate if digitisation accelerates
  • If recovery is impeded, construction may be adversely impacted
  • If international borders stay closed, local manufacturing may have to increase its capacity

3.4 Education and training implications

  • Completing an education remains key