The shape of Australia's post COVID-19 workforce

Fortress Australia scenario

DescriptionThe Fortress Australia scenario assumes the virus is largely suppressed domestically by 2021. However, globally the virus is not suppressed as there is no vaccine developed, resulting in Australia keeping its international borders closed until 2022.

Shocks

Productivity

Negative (relative to Economic Restoration)

Domestic demand

Negative (relative to Economic Restoration)

International demand

Negative (relative to Economic Restoration)

Government spending

Neutral (relative to Economic Restoration)

Population

Negative (relative to Economic Restoration)

Other shocks

Domestic tourism (relative to Economic Restoration) International tourism (relative to Economic Restoration) On-shored industries (relative to Economic Restoration)

Results

Industries with international connections face larger declines, but onshore industry increases due to global supply chain disruptions. There is lower level of employment under the Economic Restoration scenario due to reduced migration.