3.1 The importance of scenario modelling 

• Method used to examine the scenarios
• Scenarios considered
• Analysing the modelling results

3.2 Key findings from the central Economic Restoration scenario

• The Economic Restoration scenario outlines a pathway of recovery for Australia
• Impacts on occupational employment will flatten out over time
• Many occupations will recover
• Occupations that were performing well before COVID-19 are expected to grow
• Structure of labour market unlikely to change significantly
• Health, education and professional services will continue to dominate growth
• The labour market will continue to shift towards higher skilled jobs

3.3 Insights from the other scenarios examined by the NSC

• Initial impacts flatten out across all scenarios
• More substantial structural change likely if digitisation accelerates
• Trend towards higher skilled jobs to accelerate if digitisation accelerates
• If recovery is impeded, construction may be adversely impacted
• If international borders stay closed, local manufacturing may have to increase its capacity

3.4 Education and training implications

• Completing an education remains key