The shape of Australia's post COVID-19 workforce
Part 3 Modelling of economic recovery scenarios
3.1 The importance of scenario modelling
- Method used to examine the scenarios
- Scenarios considered
- Analysing the modelling results
3.2 Key findings from the central Economic Restoration scenario
- The Economic Restoration scenario outlines a pathway of recovery for Australia
- Impacts on occupational employment will flatten out over time
- Many occupations will recover
- Occupations that were performing well before COVID-19 are expected to grow
- Structure of labour market unlikely to change significantly
- Health, education and professional services will continue to dominate growth
- The labour market will continue to shift towards higher skilled jobs
3.3 Insights from the other scenarios examined by the NSC
- Initial impacts flatten out across all scenarios
- More substantial structural change likely if digitisation accelerates
- Trend towards higher skilled jobs to accelerate if digitisation accelerates
- If recovery is impeded, construction may be adversely impacted
- If international borders stay closed, local manufacturing may have to increase its capacity
3.4 Education and training implications
- Completing an education remains key