The National Skills Commission (NSC) Employment Projections provide a guide to the likely direction of the jobs market over the next five years.
Each year these projections are updated to reflect emerging trends and developments.
The latest data available are for the five years to November 2026.
Projections by industry
Four services industries are projected to provide almost two-thirds (65.4%) of the total projected employment growth:
- Health care and social assistance
- Professional, scientific and technical services
- Education and training
- Accommodation and food services.
This follows the long-term structural shift in employment towards services industries.
Projected employment growth by industry, November 2021 – November 2026
Projections by occupational group
Increases in employment are projected across all eight broad occupational groups over the five years to November 2026.
NSC projections show very strong employment growth for professionals (up by 494,200 or 14.7%) and community and personal service workers (up by 188,900 or 13.5%).
Projected employment growth by major occupational group, November 2021 – November 2026
Projections by skill level
The projections highlight the growing importance of education and training. More than nine-in-ten new jobs over the next five years will require post-school education.
Projected employment growth in Skill Level 1 occupations – usually requiring a Bachelor degree or higher – accounts for over half of the projected total employment growth over the five years to November 2026. Skill Level 4 occupations (usually requiring a Certificate II or III) also have strong growth projections.
Projected employment growth by skill level, November 2021 – November 2026
Note: the Occupation Projections and Skill Level Projections tabs of the 2021 Employment Projections data file have had a minor update applied because a small number of occupations were found to have the incorrect skill level displayed. This was resolved with an update on 27/06/2022. The 2021 Employment Projections data file was updated to include the Detailed Industry Projections tab on 08/09/2022.