Released 2:30pm Friday, 11 November 2022

The National Skills Commission produces quarterly Small Area Labour Markets (SALM) estimates of unemployment and the unemployment rate. The data are available for Statistical Area Level 2s (SA2s) and Local Government Areas (LGAs) - for more information on what SA2s and LGAs are, see the geography section of the SALM methodology page.

The September quarter 2022 issue of SALM is expected to be released in early December 2022.

SALM estimates are synthetic so particular care should be taken when interpreting the data. We recommend users read the SALM methodology, and the guidance on this page, before examining the data.

The latest available smoothed SALM estimates show around 9 in 10 SA2s (92.2%) recorded a decrease in their smoothed unemployment rate over the year to the June quarter 2022, the highest proportion recorded since the start of the SALM series in the December quarter 2010 and well above the 27.4% (of SA2s for which estimates are available) recorded over the year to the June quarter 2021. 

In the June quarter 2022, over two-thirds (70.6%) of SA2s recorded an unemployment rate of less than 5%, while 4.8% of SA2s recorded an unemployment rate of 10% or more.

Small Area Labour Markets: Distribution of SA2s by unemployment rate

The COVID-19 pandemic began to have a significant negative impact on the Australian labour market from March 2020, when Australia recorded its 100^th COVID-19 case and the initial shutdown of non-essential services and trading restrictions took effect. Similarly, the COVID-19 lockdowns that commenced in mid-2021 also restricted labour demand and supply.

Unlike during the initial lockdown and the 2021 outbreaks, however, the high rates of infection during the Omicron outbreak in first months of 2022 did not result in any lockdowns or travel restrictions (with the exception of Western Australia), while trading restrictions were eased. That said, workplace absences due to illness during Omicron also affected labour supply.

It is worth bearing in mind that the smoothed SALM series, which is created by averaging four quarters of unsmoothed SALM data, lags actual changes in labour market conditions. It is also important to note that if labour market conditions in a region have varied significantly over the four quarters, the smoothed estimate will be an average of those different prevailing labour market conditions, rather than reflecting conditions from any particular quarter.

• For example, the June quarter 2022 smoothed estimates reflect one quarter where there was a sharp downturn in the labour market (due to the mid-2021 outbreak) and 3 quarters of significantly stronger labour market conditions (as lockdowns ended and travel and trading restrictions eased).

It is also worth noting that the labour market’s adjustment to COVID-19 has not been fully reflected in changes to the level of unemployment and the unemployment rate. At various times since March 2020, lockdowns implemented to control the spread of COVID-19 have tended to result in a large number of people leaving the labour force. As these people were no longer participating in the labour force, they were not counted as unemployed by the ABS, leading to a much smaller increase in the unemployment rate than would have otherwise been expected, given the significant fall in employment that occurred during the lockdowns.

Given both the large number of people who left the labour force at different times during the pandemic, and the lag from the smoothing process, care should be exercised when interpreting SALM data from the June quarter 2020 onwards.

Mutual obligation requirements are tasks and activities that people agree to do while they are receiving certain types of income support, including the JobSeeker Payment and Youth Allowance (other) payment.

The suspension of mutual obligation requirements can have an impact on the SALM data. This is because the ABS only considers someone to be unemployed if they are actively looking for work. When mutual obligation requirements are suspended, it is possible that some job seekers may not have undertaken the job search that they normally would have, in which case they would be considered to be not in the labour force rather than unemployed.

For more information on mutual obligation requirements, please see the Services Australia website.

Floods

Mutual obligation requirements were temporarily suspended for a number of flood-affected LGAs in New South Wales and south-east Queensland in early 2022.

The June quarter 2022 release of SALM contains LGA estimates based upon the 2022 LGA structure. There were only minor differences between this and the previous LGA structure.

It should be noted that there have been a number of changes to which LGAs had a break in the unsmoothed series between the March quarter 2019 and June quarter 2019. For more information, see the Revisions to LGA series breaks section on the SALM Methodology page.

When using and interpreting SALM data

• Be aware movements may reflect statistical volatility rather than underlying changes in the labour market 
• Always use the latest SALM publication
• Where possible, use year-on-year comparisons
• Where possible, use the smoothed estimates
• Be aware that SALM smoothed estimates lag changes in labour market conditions
• Do not derive employment estimates
• Use other data sources in addition to SALM

Small Area Labour Markets (SALM) data can be volatile

Unemployment and unemployment rate estimates at the Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2) and Local Government Area (LGA) level can be volatile. This is especially the case for SA2s and LGAs that are located within Statistical Area Level 4 (SA4) regions where the ABS Labour Force Survey data are also highly volatile. SALM users should take particular care where:

• There are large movements in SALM data
• SA2s and LGAs have a small labour force (less than 1000).

Always use the latest SALM publication, even for earlier periods

Always use the current SALM publication, as SALM data, even for earlier periods, can be revised.

The ABS rebenchmarks its Labour Force Survey estimates on a quarterly basis to ensure that they are based on the most up-to-date population information. These revisions are reflected in the latest SALM estimates.

When new Census benchmarks become available, SALM estimates are revised back a number of years to reflect these new benchmarks.

Where possible, use year-on-year comparisons

Quarterly movements in the SALM data may not reflect actual changes in the labour market. We recommend considering year-on-year comparisons in the data.

Where possible, use the smoothed estimates

We recommend that SALM users analyse the smoothed SALM data, given the high degree of volatility that is inherent in small area estimates.

SALM smoothed estimates lag changes in labour market conditions

The smoothed SALM series is created by applying an average to four quarters of unsmoothed data. This means that changes in the smoothed SALM series will lag actual changes in labour market conditions.

While the unsmoothed data are likely to be more responsive to changes in labour market conditions, they are also subject to high levels of statistical variability, which may be exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Interpret the unsmoothed SALM series with caution. Even large movements could reflect statistical variability rather than actual changes in labour market conditions.

Do not derive employment estimates

It is not appropriate to derive employment from the figures in SALM. See the SALM Methodology for more details.

Use other data sources in addition to SALM

We recommend that users also consider other sources of small area labour market information. This is particularly the case for SA2s exhibiting high levels of volatility. Other useful sources of data include:

• The ABS Census of Population and Housing
• Income support payment data

Small Area Labour Markets (SALM) presents estimates based on the Structure Preserving Estimation (SPREE) methodology. SPREE enables the generation of small area unemployment, unemployment rate and labour force estimates.

Visit the Small Area Labour Markets methodology page to find out more about the methodology, source data, and geographical classification that underpin SALM.

PDF publication

The PDF version of SALM is a print-friendly document containing the key information for the current quarter, SA2 and LGA data tables as well as explanatory notes.

SALM Queries

The SALM estimates are prepared by the National Skills Commission’s Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch.

For more information about SALM, please email: SALM@skillscommission.gov.au

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